The great Oxford-analysis: These ten countries to tax on a second Corona-shaft
Corona is not over. Even if in many countries and is loosened – there continue to be increases the infection numbers. An analysis of the Oxford data shows which countries could threaten a second wave. And the are calculated, where the situation seems to relax.
The world health organization reported cases in the strongest increase of the global Corona. In particular, the United States, where authorities announced a daily increase of about 35,000 new infections per day – nearly as many as at the peak of the crisis in April.
However, not only in the USA, a further rise in cases threatens. Ten countries are particularly vulnerable, to a second Corona-wave move. The analysis of the “Guardian”, which is based on data from the Oxford researchers found.
As the British magazine writes, include these ten countries to the regions which are currently less stringent measures shall apply. In all ten countries, the authorities made in relation to the previous week, an increase in case numbers. This brought the analysis in connection with the so-called “stringency index”.
Stringency index rating of countries ‘ activities, in order to prevent a second Virus wave
The scientists from the University of Oxford to show up in the “Coronavirus Government Response Tracker”, how the infection happened in different countries in terms of the measures developed.
Overall, the researchers considered 17 indicators. The data for the indicators summarized under four indices:
- a cross-Index, the rating of the response of a government to the Virus
- a Mitigation and health index
- an Index that considers the economic support, so, for example, Income support
- and a so-called stringency index.
On the basis of the stringency index is a rating of the Tracker, the public information campaigns, control measures and closures on a scale of 0 to 100.
The stringency index is below 70, it will consider the situation in a country as “relaxed”. He rises again, shows that the imposition of new measures, such as a re-Lockdown. The Guardian’s analysis accounted for ten of the countries which had been classified with values below 70 as “relaxed”, in which case the numbers now but it will rise again.
Germany: "Light Lockdown" after the outbreak in the slaughterhouse
Johns Hopkins University. In mid-June increased the number of cases in Germany. In spite of the relaxations are no strong infection increases made in Germany, first of all, noticeable. The stringency index declined to 50.0, the corona onset on the slaughterhouse of the Tönnies plant in Rheda-Wiedenbrück in the Kreis of Gütersloh had let him, however, to 73.0 rise. Since then, over a two-country circles, a Lockdown is imposed.
The term “Light Lockdown” occurred in the district of Gütersloh and in the neighboring circle of the village were, once again, strict requirements in force. For the time being, only two people, family members or residents of the same household are allowed to meet in a public space together. Also museums, cinemas, fitness studios, indoor swimming pools and Bars remain closed. Which according to the state of North Rhine-Westphalia’s Prime Minister, Armin Laschet, initially until 30. June 2020. Already since the 17th century. June, the schools and kindergartens in Gütersloh, Germany, are closed.
Even if the strong infection to rise to the Region of Gütersloh limited to, increased the total cases in Germany in comparison to the last week in order to 35 percent. The analysis does not exclude a renewed, large-scale increase in infections.
Iran: Second peak after loosening
Johns Hopkins University Also Iran will continue to be from the Coronavirus dominated. The countries in the middle East experienced after the loosening of your corona measures are quickly a much stronger infection increases. Thus, the Numbers in Iran reached to the first easing in may, a second peak, now the Numbers are rising again. The officials had stated that the increase was due to more Tests.
But at the same time, the percentage of positive returned Tests increase, it is likely that the Virus again in the population had spread. The stringency value is 52.8.
Saudi Arabia: Strong increase since mid-June
Johns Hopkins University , The corona cases in Saudi Arabia rise again. The stringency index in Saudi Arabia is currently 69.9, so close to the border. For the Hajj, the traditional pilgrimage, which will begin at the end of July, will only be permitted Muslims to live in Saudi Arabia. Also, the number of pilgrims is very limited. Hajj Minister Mohammed Saleh bin said Taher Benten, the number of pilgrims will be in the four digit range, but not the 10,000-mark to exceed. For comparison: last year, 2.5 million people made the pilgrimage to Mecca.
Despite the limitations, the cases in Saudi Arabia rise since the middle of June again strong and overhauled in order for the Infection rates for the first peak, which is on the early to mid-may date
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USA: infection increase due to local outbreaks
Johns Hopkins University In the USA, there are daily tens of thousands of nine infections. After several governors had eased the measures, was reduced the stringency value in the United States at the beginning of June to 69.0. However, after several cities had eased their policies, it came again to local relapses. Thus, the number of new corona cases has increased in the past week compared to the last one-quarter. President Donald Trump said, although the increase in infections going back, especially to an increase in the number of Tests.
As he explained in an Interview with Fox News, have been tested in the USA to date, some 30 million people to the Virus, more than any other country in the world. “When we would test, we would have no cases,” said the US President.
The most renowned experts reject trump’s statement, however. You make in the first line of Trump-driven easing of Corona-restrictions in the Federal States are responsible.
Sweden: Accelerated Transfer Rate
Johns Hopkins University Sweden committed in the corona of the crisis a different approach. In Sweden the epidemic was used as early as in Germany. The country, however, pursued a different approach, limited to its citizens only a little. Most of the schools remained opened, as cafes and Restaurants. The country now runs the risk of reliving a second infection increase.
The head of the WHO regional office for Europe, Hans Kluge, had spoken on Thursday by once again increasing Corona-Pay in Europe. An accelerated transmission rate have led in different countries to a very significant resurgence of the Virus – including Sweden. The Index is currently 46.3.
More on Coronavirus
Ukraine: the Looming burden of health care
Johns Hopkins University In Ukraine will rise the cases to the outside world. The same applies for the Ukraine, which classifies the Guardian as the analysis so far is “relaxed” country, with a renewed increase. The stringency index is currently at 64.3. Compared to last week, the infections increased by almost 30 percent. Strong pressures for health care threaten to Wise that, if decided against the spread would be applied.
France: Relaxed measures, to increase again in
Johns Hopkins University Also France is not before a second wave of immune. The stringency index is located in France 65,7. After a containment phase of 17. March to 10. May have occurred there in may relaxed the measures in force. The country was divided, according to their virus case numbers in red and green zones, to which the Strict rules-oriented.
Since the 22. June is one the whole of France as the green Zone, with the exception of Mayotte, and French Guiana, which is considered the orange Zone. Still, the cases increased compared to the last week again to around 12 percent. In France, there is now a Tracing App to help stem the spread of the Coronavirus.
Bangladesh: “the Situation is catastrophic”
Johns Hopkins University In the South of Asia develops a new Corona-Hotspot In South Asia developed a new Corona-Hotspot. “The Situation is catastrophic”, reported about a doctor Abdur Rob of the Chittagong General Hospital in Bangladesh. “The patients die in the ambulance on the streets while you are between hospitals, back and forth.” Bangladesh noted since April, a nearly continuous increase in the corona cases, the stringency index is currently in 63.0.
Indonesia: Renewed increase since the beginning of June
Johns Hopkins University Indonesia could be a second wave of Infection are threatening. In Indonesia, authorities reported Infected for the first time in early March, Corona. As the analysis of the Oxford data shows, the Numbers increase after a slight decline at the beginning of June continues. The stringency index in Indonesia is currently at 68.
Switzerland: Lower Index, rising infections
Johns Hopkins University compared to last week increased infections in Switzerland again. In principle, the stringency index of 39 in Switzerland is relatively low. There are relatively few restrictions, and all events with up to 300 people can be done again; spontaneous gatherings of up to 30 people are also allowed. Compared to last week, the infections have increased this week by about 15 percent.
German hospitals are bracing for a “possible second wave in the autumn”
This is analysis and to predict whether and to what extent these countries, a second wave is, at present, it is not clearly set. In Germany, the hospitals prepare, after all, on a possible second wave.
Clinics to expect, despite the first steps towards normalization, and for several months with a operating in crisis mode. “The Corona pandemic is not over yet,” said the chief Executive of the German hospital society, Georg tree.
“Kept free of personnel and intensive capacities are required – also for a possible second wave in the autumn.” A return to the rule of supply as before the Corona was until well into next year certainly not possible.
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